Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 24 September - 5 October 2014

23 Sep 2014 0 Share

Surf Forecast issued 3.00pm, Tuesday, 23 September 2014. By Chief Swell Forecaster Ben Macartney.

Indo Forecast

Presented by Garuda Indonesia

IN BRIEF
A new round of SSW groundswell peaks on Wednesday and gradually eases into the end of the week. A new, long interval SSW groundswell arrives on Saturday and holds plenty of size throughout Sunday before easing to lower levels on Monday. Another solid SSW groundswell is then anticipated to arrive on Tuesday 30th September.

The last days of September are set to crank under the influence of another long interval SSW groundswell. Photo: Nick O'Brien/ Santa Lusia/ World Surfaris.

The last days of September are set to crank under the influence of another long interval SSW groundswell. Photo: Nick O'Brien/ Santa Lusia/ World Surfaris.

SUMMARY
Wednesday 24
SSW groundswell. Sets to 5 – 8ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday 25
SSW swell. Sets up to 4 - 6ft exposed breaks, easing during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Friday 26
SSW swell Sets up to 3 - 4ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure . WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 27
New, long period SSW groundswell 6 - 8ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday 28
SSW groundswell. 5 - 6ft+ sets exposed breaks, easing during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Monday 29
SSW groundswell 3 – 5ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots.

OVERVIEW
The southern Indian Ocean storm track continues to overachieve into late September, with two back to back pulses of strong SSW groundswell inbound across the Archipelago this week and a third, mid-sized pulse looming for the final day of September and first days of October.  Tuesday and Wednesday mark the arrival of a first, mid period SSW groundswell arriving out a fairly acute directional band of 200 to 215 degrees. This originates from a complex polar low characterised by a series of deep polar fronts feeding into the system as it migrated across the southern Indian Ocean over the course of last week. Although only a relatively small-scale  system in comparison to some of its winter predecessors, the storm established a broader belt of low-end SSW gales aimed squarely at Indonesia last Thursday and Friday. The peak of the swell is loosely projected to reach a larger 5 to 8ft levels on Wednesday before gradually easing throughout Thursday and Friday.

As per last week’s update late September is set to go off with a bang, compliments of a new, winter-scale storm system that set up over polar latituides, below the south-western Indian Ocean over the past five days or so. At its inception the system developed as a small mid latitude system currently over the far south-eastern Atlantic, but as it curved beneath South Africa and Madagascar late last week it rapidly intensified and expanded in size to evolve into a complex, supercharged low pressure system occupying polar latitudes. Over the last 48 hours satellite passes confirmed a subsequent 40 to 60kt westerly fetch spanning the 50S to 60S latitudinal bands, deep below the Kerguelen Islands. This in turn sends out a large, long interval SSW groundswell that’s on track to make landfall across Indonesian coasts late Friday 26th ahead of the bulk of swell peaking during Saturday 27th.

Although not overly large, long peak intervals of 16 to 20 seconds should see strong sets in the 6 to 8ft range across exposed breaks during Saturday and the tail end should continue to run at still large 6ft plus on Sunday 28th. Just as the tail end of this episode eases to more manageable levels on Monday 29th it overlaps with yet another sizeable pulse of SSW groundswell that’s anticipated to substantially fill in overnight. This arises from another deep polar storm system currently gathering momentum west of the Kerguelen Islands. The storm steadily intensifies as it moves further east over the next few days, setting up a broad, low end gale force WSW fetch on Wednesday that’s set to swing SW and align more or less directly with the Archipelago on Thursday. Although associated peak wave period won’t be as long as this weekend’s pulse, the closer range of the swell source should produce another large episode peaking in the 5 to 6ft plus range on Tuesday 30th.

Offshore Virtual Buoy:9° 0' 0"S x 115° 0' 0"E 

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali: The leading edge of another long interval SSW groundswell begins to show up late Friday ahead of the bulk of swell arriving on Saturday.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali: The leading edge of another long interval SSW groundswell begins to show up late Friday ahead of the bulk of swell arriving on Saturday.

LONG RANGE
Next Tuesday’s impending episode should gradually subside again throughout the first two days of October ahead of a series of reinforcing SSW pulses arriving from Friday 3rd onwards. This is associated with the further eastward movement of the aforementioned low pressure system over the coming days. As the system moves  below Western Australia during Friday and Saturday it’s forecast to establish a long, gale force WSW fetch across the far south-eastern Indian Ocean; setting up a couple of pulses of refracted SSW groundswell for Indonesia; speculatively peaking over the weekend of Saturday 4th in the 4 to 6ft range – but this will become clearer in light of the system’s development over the next few days. Beyond that, longer term modelling indicates the southern Indian Ocean storm track will become far more subdued leading into the final days of September and first days of October. This speculatively hints at a period of small to tiny surf prevailing throughout the week beginning Monday 6th October, but this will become clearer in next week’s update.


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